F1’s Biggest Movers and Shakers After Barcelona Test

George Russell knew the moment he climbed out of the W17 on day five of the Barcelona Shakedown. You could see it in the way he walked back through the paddock—not the relieved trudge of a driver who’d survived another testing session, but the loose-shouldered confidence of someone who’d just watched every rival’s engineer stare at timing screens with expressions normally reserved for tax audits. 

Mercedes had been quick. Properly, undeniably, race-winning quick. And by the time bookmakers finished digesting five days of long-run data, online betting sites had vaulted Russell from level-pegging with Max Verstappen to outright championship favorite. 

The latest odds from the popular Lucky Rebel now make Mercedes’ main man the clear 7/4 front-runner to claim a maiden title in 2026, down in no small part to the mighty 500 laps the Silver Arrows racked up at the Circuit De Catalunya. Verstappen now finds himself out at 7/2 and playing catch-up just as he was throughout almost the entirety of the 2025 season. But as we indeed saw last term, write the Flying Dutchman off at your peril. 

So, who were the biggest movers and shakers after F1’s recent Barcelona test? Does Lewis Hamilton have any hope of claiming a record-breaking eighth title? What about reigning champion Lando Norris and his hopes for a successful title defence? Let’s take a look. 

Russell Takes Pole Position

George Russell’s position as favorite isn’t betting market hysteria. It’s the naturally drawn conclusion after watching him absolutely demolish Barcelona’s long-run programs. We’re not talking about topping a single timing sheet on low fuel and soft compounds—anyone can look heroic for three flying laps. G-Russ’s race simulations were terrifying for rivals. Consistent lap times deep into tire life, minimal degradation through Barcelona’s abrasive final sector, and rock-solid reliability while others nursed gremlins back to the garage. 

His 2025 season had been a masterclass in extracting blood from a stone, finishing fourth in the championship behind eventual champion Norris, the relentless Verstappen, and long-time championship leader Oscar Piastri. All the while, he was piloting Mercedes machinery that was quick enough to tease but never quite deliver sustained title-challenging pace. Victories in Canada were more a confirmation that Russell was ready for the big time, rather than of his Silver Arrows team finally being back in business. Now, however, both driver and team seem aligned in perfect harmony and ready to mount an all-out assault on the world championship. 

Verstappen Remains Dangerous 

Max Verstappen at 7/2 represents either the betting opportunity of the decade or the first genuine sign that Red Bull could be about to fall down the pecking order. Last season, Super Max was without question the MVP of the campaign. Into the second half of the season, he was over 100 points behind the championship-leading McLaren’s. Then, he mounted a comeback for the ages, winning six of the final nine races—one of them being a dominant display in Austin, Texas—to take the championship fight down to the Abu Dhabi finale. 

In the end, Verstappen fell just short of completing the greatest comeback the sport had ever seen, just two points short, to be exact. However, he still won more races than anybody last season, despite having to drive a dog of a car throughout the first half of the campaign. He didn’t relinquish his reign as four-time world champion without a fight, and he will be gunning to reclaim his throne in 2026. You can bank on that, regardless of what the bookies say. 

Ferrari’s Stunning Resurgence Led by Hamilton

The biggest story coming out of Barcelona was no doubt the resurgence of Ferrari and, in particular, Lewis Hamilton. The seven-time world champion had, without question, the worst season of his career in 2025, with his maiden term with the Scuderia yielding not a single podium finish, the first such campaign of the British veteran’s storied 18-year career. Many were wondering whether he had any gas left in the tank heading into 2026, but those doubters seem to have been silenced, at least for the short term. 

Hamilton headed to Barcelona as a 40/1 outsider to secure a record-breaking eighth world championship this season. However, after ending the five-day test with the fastest lap time of anybody, those odds have been dramatically slashed down to just 16/1. Teammate Charles Leclerc has also seen his championship odds tighten, no doubt down to the fact that his teammate not only set the fastest lap time, but his team amassed well over 400 completed laps without incident, a far cry from 12 months ago. 

McLaren’s Defending Champions Drift Backward

McLaren’s drift tells the saddest story. Norris is now a distant 7/1 shot after being neck-and-neck with Russell and Verstappen pre-Barcelona. Piastri is at 12/1 after pushing his teammate to Abu Dhabi’s final laps in 2025, actually leading more racing laps than Norris, but failing to convert when it mattered. 

The MCL-40 looked nervous in testing, particularly through high-speed direction changes, where last year’s car was surgically precise. Is this a championship hangover or a genuine regression? Andrea Stella projects calm, but Woking’s midnight oil is burning hot, trying to understand where their advantage disappeared. The reigning champions are facing the prospect of arriving in Melbourne already on the back foot, fighting for podiums, rather than poles. 

Alonso’s Ageless Ambition

Finally, we have Fernando Alonso as a shock 7/1 contender, level with the defending world champion. The man is 44 years old, and somehow convinced bookmakers he’s a genuine threat after Aston Martin’s AMR26 showed race pace that had paddock veterans doing double-takes. His 2025 was typically brilliant—dragging podiums from machinery that had no business being there, defying his birth certificate with qualifying performances that bordered on witchcraft. 

But this wasn’t supposed to be a title-contending year, even with Adrian Newey’s arrival from Red Bull. And what’s more, Aston Martin wasn’t even particularly impressive in Barcelona. Far from it, in fact, only logging a paltry 65 laps combined throughout the entire five-day test. Still, conversation around the team and especially their veteran Spanish lead driver has changed entirely. Is this romantic betting sentiment or legitimate championship analysis? Probably somewhere in between, but you write off two-time champ Alonso at your peril.