What to watch for as Formula 1 returns from summer break

Formula 1 returns from its summer break next week, and ahead of the next 12 races that will come thick and fast, it’s important to take stock and analyse what will be the biggest stories to keep an eye on.

From our championship protagonists to those that are fighting for their future, the 2026 Formula 1 season is far from over. Here is what you need to know.

Watch every race of the 2026 season live on Apple TV

The championship equation

The biggest surprise so far of 2026 has to be Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli leading the drivers’ world championship by 50 points. As impressive as the second-year star has been, it’s actually the drivers who chase him that I think you need to keep your eye on. F1’s development war has waged on, and it’s Ferrari who sit in the box seat to dethrone the Silver Arrows despite a strong showing from McLaren at Hungary.

Lewis Hamilton, at 41 years old, has looked far more consistent than Charles Leclerc across the season. 50 points is a large margin, but the quality of the seven-time world champion might well see him be in the hunt for championship number eight. The 2025 championship battle saw Max Verstappen close 51 points on Lando Norris after the Dutch Grand Prix. 

Our other championship protagonist is George Russel. Afflicted by various issues, including unreliability and some critical mistakes, sees him trail Antonelli by 59 points. It seems a difficult challenge for the Brit but not impossible. We saw Aussie Oscar Piastri’s championship implosion from Azerbaijan last season, so you cannot rule at Russell making a charge for the title late in the season. 

Silly season starts

Unlike previous F1 seasons, it feels the merry-go-round of driver changes for the following season has been stagnant. However, as the season progresses, more drivers will be fighting for new seats or to stay on the grid.

The key lies with Max Verstappen. The Dutchman’s future amidst some rough Red Bull form has routinely been called into question. A departure or move to the Silver Arrows could set off a chain reaction similar to when Hamilton made his shock Ferrari move. As unlikely as a Verstappen-Mercedes partnership would be, never say never.

You’d imagine George Russell could find himself hunting for a new seat either with Red Bull or further afield.  Both Racing Bulls of rookie Arvid Lindblad and Liam Lawson could see themselves in the spotlight. Lindblad could be the man to replace Verstappen, but Lawson could find himself under pressure despite his strong form if junior Nikola Tsolov is seen as a future prospect worthy of a seat.

Beyond the yearly Red Bull circus, Franco Colapinto is desperate to earn a renewal at Alpine, and Fernando Alonso is expected to resign at Aston Martin. Finally, as much as it has been dispelled by both his management and the driver himself, speculation remains if Oscar Piastri could possibly be lured away from McLaren after a difficult Hungarian Grand Prix.

The midfield battle

Few teams have been as disappointing as Aston Martin in recent memory. Both Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll’s machinery was seconds off the pace, not dissimilar to Williams in 2019.

A fortunate tenth for Alonso in Monaco saved Aston from a pointless first half of the season. Even that required Cadillac to be stripped of their first points finish as Sergio Perez was penalised. The Hungarian Grand Prix brought a new spec car, which is expected to lift them potentially into the Q2 realm. Only 11 points behind Audi in eighth should be seen as a potential target if they can continue to catch up to the midfield pack. Another disappointing team has been Williams.

With expectations of bridging the gap between the top four and midfield at the start of the season, James Vowles’ team has been dealt the ultimate reality check. Overweight and needing performance, Williams needs to bounce back if they want to salvage something from the start of the new rules era. At the front of the midfield, you’ll need to watch the Racing Bulls and Alpine battle it out for fifth in the constructors’ championship.

Alpine came out of the blocks firing but have only scored four points in as many races before the summer break. Racing Bulls have closed the gap and scored 25 points in the same time. The sister team leads by five, but it’s anyone’s game with both teams aiming to build a foundation which could allow them to chase the leading pack in future seasons.

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Written by

Oliver van Bronswijk

Oliver van Bronswijk is a Formula 1, Cricket and AFL journalist who has a large array of industry experience in Melbourne, Australia. He has delivered Formula 1 coverage both trackside and from afar, depicting the key issues in the world's fastest sport. Oliver also works as a 3AW Content Producer focused on AFL coverage working in the inner sanctum.

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