Toto Wolff’s Mercedes Could Be Left ‘Hanging On’ for the Rest of 2026 After Front-Loading Their Development, Warns Bernie Collins

• Sky Sports pundit Bernie Collins says Mercedes could be left “hanging on” to win this year’s titles after appearing to front-load the development of their 2026 car.
• Mercedes won the first six races of the season but have taken just two of the following six, with Ferrari and McLaren also claiming two victories apiece as their upgrades have landed.
• Mercedes’ next major upgrade is not expected until the rescheduled Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia in October, with three races in between at Monza, Spain and Azerbaijan.

Mercedes could find themselves “hanging on” to win this year’s Formula 1 titles after apparently front-loading the development of their 2026 car, according to Sky Sports F1 pundit Bernie Collins.

Mercedes made a dominant start to the season following the introduction of new chassis and power unit regulations, with Kimi Antonelli winning five races in a row after team-mate George Russell won the opener. After that, the team has won just two of the following six races, with Ferrari and McLaren each taking two victories of their own as their upgrades have added performance.

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‘The Front-Loading Bit, I Get’

The turnaround in form comes as Lando Norris has won the last two races for McLaren, either side of the summer break, in Hungary and the Netherlands, a run that has coincided with Mercedes boss Toto Wolff admitting after Sunday’s race that his team “haven’t got the money” to match their rivals’ upgrades.

Speaking on the latest episode of Sky Sports’ The F1 Show podcast, former Aston Martin head of strategy Collins reacted to Wolff’s comments and the situation now facing Mercedes. “Mercedes have front-loaded it and that shows a confidence in their power unit and their overall chassis design,” she said. “We had it for so many years at Force India, having a good reliable car for early-season races before people got on top of their reliability is where we scored all our points.

“For many years we got our strong position in the championship just in the first six races by finishing the race in a reasonable position. So, the front-loading it bit, I get.”

A Long Wait for the Next Upgrade

While Ferrari and McLaren have regularly brought significant upgrades through the year, Mercedes’ last major package landed back at the Canadian Grand Prix in May, and their next one is not expected until the rescheduled Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia from October 2-4, with races in Italy, Spain and Azerbaijan to get through first.

Antonelli currently holds a 59-point lead at the top of the standings over Russell and Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton, with an in-form Norris 83 points back in fourth. Mercedes are 87 points clear of Ferrari in the constructors’ championship, while McLaren trail by 162 points.

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‘It Will Be Interesting to See if They Can Hold On’

Collins questioned how much of Wolff’s public complaint reflects the full story. “Where the money lies, who knows? What the team bosses say to us is often not [the truth]. Maybe Wolff is counting the Mercedes upgrade that is coming to Malaysia [within his calculations],” she said.

“Mercedes have sort of put their money on the front end. There are pros and cons to that. Getting the points on the board early when other people are struggling is the pro, but conversely, then you’re not gathering the data and learning about the development for the next six months when other people are. They’ve put their decision-making one way, and it will be interesting to see if they can hold on.”

A Calendar That Keeps Shifting

Collins also pointed to a complication beyond raw pace: uncertainty over the back half of the season is making it harder for every team to plan its upgrades. The Bahrain Grand Prix is being run from Malaysia after April’s postponement over conflict in the Middle East, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix was cancelled outright, and it remains unclear whether Qatar (November 27-29) and Abu Dhabi (December 4-6) will go ahead as scheduled, with European venues on standby as replacements.

“An additional difficulty for the teams has been created by the calendar continuing to change with the ongoing situation in the Middle East,” Collins said. “It’s hard for teams to decide whether to put more emphasis on high-speed or low-speed corners, for example, because you don’t know what the make-up of tracks going forward is. That’s quite interesting, where they prioritise their upgrades in terms of overall car performance.”

Mercedes will have to get through three of those uncertain rounds, starting with Monza, without the extra pace an upgrade could bring, all while Norris and McLaren arrive at Ferrari’s home race with the sport’s clear on-track momentum behind them. Collins’s assessment leaves Wolff with a plain question to answer over the coming weeks: whether front-loading the 2026 campaign was a smart use of a limited budget, or a gamble that hands the title fight away just as Mercedes’ rivals hit their stride.

More F1 Reading

• Esteban Ocon’s Haas Future Left Hanging as Team Boss Ayao Komatsu Says They Are ‘Not in Any Rush’ Over 2027 Driver Plans
• Max Verstappen’s Red Bull Denied Any Engine Upgrade for the Rest of 2026 as FIA Confirms Mercedes Keep Their Development Edge
• Franco Colapinto Extends Alpine Contract
• Toto Wolff Admits Mercedes ‘Haven’t Got The Money’ to Match McLaren and Ferrari’s Upgrade Pace

Written by

Jack Renn

Jack Renn is an editor at F1 Chronicle and a veteran motorsport journalist with 25 years of experience covering Formula 1 and international motorsport. A member of the Association Internationale de la Presse Sportive (AIPS), the global body representing accredited sports journalists, Jack has spent his career reporting from paddocks and press rooms across the F1 calendar. His work spans race analysis, technical insight, and in-depth features, giving readers authoritative coverage grounded in decades of firsthand experience at the highest level of the sport.

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