Why Not Winning the Title at COTA Could Bring a Nightmare Scenario for Kimi Antonelli

Kimi Antonelli did everything he could have done at the United States Grand Prix to become the youngest Formula 1 world champion. He won the race as he needed to, but still missed out on the title because of where Lewis Hamilton and George Russell finished.

With the title almost in Antonelli’s grasp, the situation could well take a sudden shift and throw the backend of the F1 season into chaos.

With the Middle Eastern region still being a flashpoint of concerning incidents, chances are that F1 might have to take the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races off the calendar. As such, the driver who has just won his third race of the last eight Grands Prix might not be able to extend his lead as much as he wants to win his first title on the track.

Currently sitting with a lead of 123 points, Antonelli can’t afford a late reduction of races in the championship calendar, especially before the Mexican Grand Prix.

The 20-year-old needs to score just 2 more points to all but seal his title in Mexico this weekend. However, if the FIA cancels even a single race in the Middle East before that, it would be a nightmare scenario for the Italian.

Since the conflict in the Middle East has only been on the rise, heading to Qatar and Abu Dhabi to conduct F1 races looks like a highly unlikely scenario. And the FIA is likely to make the call on those races very soon.

With such a huge lead at the front, Antonelli could well win the championship automatically, should one or both of those races be canceled before the Mexican GP. However, it would be far from an ideal scenario for the 20-year-old, who’d want to be on the track when he becomes the first Italian driver since 1953 to win the driver’s title.

Does F1 Have Any Backup for the Middle Eastern Races?

Given that the conflict in the Middle East had already broken out by the time the 2026 season got underway, F1 had to take radical measures with the opening leg of the campaign. The authorities decided to call off the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia races at the time.

While the decision was made to host the Bahrain GP in Malaysia, the sport steered clear of any decision on the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races scheduled for the final stretch of 2026.

With tensions still running high in the Middle East, many think of Plan B as a season finale held at the Imola track in Europe, which would act as an Abu Dhabi replacement. Meanwhile, the Qatar race is all but certain to be called off, much like the Saudi Arabian GP.

F1 teams were hoping for a more concrete decision regarding the same by the middle of October, but that deadline has since come and gone without any update. And the move perhaps has to do with the fact that Stefano Domenicali is confident about the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races.

F1 President Confident of Kimi Antonelli Winning the Championship on Track

While there hasn’t been any new communication from the F1 authorities regarding the scheduling of the final two races of the season, F1 President Stefano Domenicali remains confident of them both proceeding as scheduled. Per GPFans, he claimed last month that Plan A was still on from their end.

Per the report, Domenicali said, “This is the direction we’ve taken based on the information and reassurances we have, and which we must absolutely have, of course. It’s the strategy we’ll apply until the end of the year.”

F1’s persistence in moving ahead with all the remaining races perhaps has to do with the fact that no one wants to crown the sport’s youngest-ever champion via a press release. Winning a record-breaking championship because of a canceled race would be a terrible look for the sport, and it could well be the driving factor behind F1 taking the risk of going racing in Qatar.

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• “It’s not realistic” – Toto Wolff Plays Down Kimi Antonelli’s Title Shot at COTA
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• “I had High Hopes” – Max Verstappen Laments Missing Pole Position at COTA
• “I Did a Very Bad Job” – Lando Norris Admits His McLaren Had Front Row Potential at COTA