George Russell and Oscar Piastri Risk Becoming Their Teams’ Clear Number Two as Antonelli and Norris Pull Away

• George Russell and Oscar Piastri are being outscored by teammates Kimi Antonelli and Lando Norris, raising questions about their long-term status at Mercedes and McLaren
• Max Verstappen and Norris have both signed contract extensions through 2030, locking down two of the sport’s most coveted seats for years to come
• Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari deal runs to the end of 2028, and Red Bull’s form alongside Aston Martin’s Honda power unit progress remain the biggest wildcards left in the driver market

Max Verstappen and Lando Norris both put pen to paper on new long-term contracts this month, and at first glance that settles the driver market at Formula 1’s four leading teams for years to come. Look at the other side of those same garages, though, and two drivers have far less certainty about their path to a title.

George Russell at Mercedes and Oscar Piastri at McLaren have both been outscored this year by teammates who have taken control of the championship fight. Norris beat Piastri to last year’s title and has adapted to F1’s new-era cars faster than the Australian in 2026. Russell began the season as the outright favourite, only for 20-year-old Kimi Antonelli to move well clear of him before the Italian’s birthday last week.

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Two Drivers Fighting the Number Two Tag

Antonelli holds a 59-point lead over Russell in the drivers’ standings, with Norris fourth on 159 points, 83 behind the Mercedes teenager. Both Russell and Piastri still believe they can turn the fight back around, whether later this season or once 2027 begins, but neither has any guarantee of doing so. If either driver keeps getting outscored by his teammate over the next 18 months, both could start to see a move away from their current team as their clearest route to a first World Championship.

Verstappen and Norris Lock Down Two of the Big Four Seats

Verstappen had been linked with a switch to either Mercedes or McLaren before instead signing the Red Bull extension that ties him to the team until 2030. Norris’s long-term future was always expected to stay at McLaren, and team and driver made it official with a multi-year extension announced on Saturday. It was the strong form of championship leader Antonelli that persuaded Mercedes boss Toto Wolff he did not need to pursue Verstappen in the first place. Wolff and Mercedes also manage Antonelli, so there is little doubt he stays at the team for years to come, and Russell has repeatedly said he wants to remain at Mercedes too. Ferrari gave Charles Leclerc his own extension back in June, and Hamilton has said on several occasions this year that he has no plans to stop racing any time soon. With the lineups at F1’s four leading teams largely set for the short term, any real change in the driver market looks set to come from elsewhere on the grid.

A Ferrari Seat Could Open as Hamilton’s Deal Runs Down

Hamilton says he plans to be around for a while yet, though it remains to be seen how long the 41-year-old continues racing in F1. He is understood to hold an option in his current deal to drive for Ferrari to the end of the 2028 season, which would take him to the brink of his 44th birthday. Fernando Alonso continues to compete at 45, but his longevity is the exception rather than the rule in the sport, and Hamilton racing on past 2028 would surprise plenty of people in the paddock. That points to a real chance of a Ferrari seat opening for the 2029 season, if not sooner. Oliver Bearman, out on loan to Haas from Ferrari’s junior programme, is the obvious internal candidate, though a seat at Maranello would draw interest from nearly every driver on the grid.

Red Bull Still Chasing the Front

Red Bull convinced Verstappen to sign his new deal, but neither team nor driver would confirm whether it includes the kind of exit clauses that fuelled speculation about his future for the past couple of years. What is clear is that the four-time champion will not settle for the level of performance Red Bull have produced so far in 2026, with the team still behind Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren. The 28-year-old will get the chance to help Red Bull close that gap next year. Should the team fail to do so, talk of alternative options for Verstappen beyond that point will return quickly. Mercedes and McLaren have both held talks with him at various stages over the past couple of years, so those channels remain open. Should Hamilton eventually step away from Ferrari, that team would join the list of potential suitors too.

Aston Martin and Honda Hold the Remaining Wildcard

The clearest way the driver market could still be shaken up is a team breaking the established top four’s grip on race wins. New power unit and chassis regulations arrived in 2026 giving several teams a chance to close that gap, but the top four has stayed the same all year. Aston Martin arrived with the biggest ambitions of any of them, only to fall well short of expectations, and it remains to be seen how quickly Honda can bring its power unit up to speed. If Honda gets its engine into the same range as the leading manufacturers by the start of next season, plenty in the paddock would back Aston Martin team principal Adrian Newey to produce a chassis capable of competing with the best on the grid. A genuine fifth contender emerging from that combination would hand the drivers currently locked into F1’s most sought-after seats another option worth watching in the years ahead.

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Written by

Jack Renn

Jack Renn is an editor at F1 Chronicle and a veteran motorsport journalist with 25 years of experience covering Formula 1 and international motorsport. A member of the Association Internationale de la Presse Sportive (AIPS), the global body representing accredited sports journalists, Jack has spent his career reporting from paddocks and press rooms across the F1 calendar. His work spans race analysis, technical insight, and in-depth features, giving readers authoritative coverage grounded in decades of firsthand experience at the highest level of the sport.

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